英语市场调研报告：美元再陷泥沼;Dollar crunched

美元再陷泥沼

 有观点认为，美联储将在下月举行的常规会议上启动新一轮资产购买计划。尽管有一位美联储要员对这一观点表示了质疑，美元还是跌到了今年1月以来的最低点。
   英语市场调研报告 美元对日元比价已经跌至81.8，是1995年4月以来的最低值，美元对欧元比价则为1.39。美元指数跌至77.2，与今年1月的低点基本持平。
    上周五发布的就业报告并不乐观，导致了美元的最新一轮下跌，美联储回归量化宽松政策的预期随之增强。在这一政策中，美联储通过购买美国国库券来压低利率。9月，美国的私营非农就业人数增加了6.4万人，尽管这一数字保持了低位增长，但仍然低于预期的7.5万个新增就业岗位。
    德利万邦公司（Tullett Prebon）的经济学家丽娜•科米利娃（Lena Komileva）在给客户的邮件中称，这些数字显示，“美国彻底远离了经济‘双谷衰退’的信号，但同时也表明美国的通货紧缩仍在持续，加强了市场对美联储在11月的美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上扩大量化宽松政策的预期。”
    然而上周五，圣路易斯联储银行行长詹姆士•布拉德（James Bullard）在CNBC电视频道的访问中表示，扩大量化宽松政策并不是板上钉钉的事儿，他还强调，联邦公开市场委员会成员在审核更多经济数据后才会做出决定。
    布拉德还指出了另一轮量化宽松行动的潜在弊端，这与几周前其它几个区域性联储银行行长的观点一致。
    “前路未明……如果我们不多加小心的话，通货紧缩极有可能越来越近，”布拉德说。
    最近几周，由于货币市场爆发了公开战争，美联储的政策已经变得非常明显。如果美元走弱，将使对手货币被升值，陷入增长困境的国家也就更难依靠出口来解决本国经济问题。
    科米利娃称，如果美联储做出新一轮量化宽松政策的承诺，人们担心最终的结果会是，“由于国内需求疲软，而全球主要货币相对美元走强，美国会将通货紧缩问题传染给世界其它国家。”
    译者：珠珠
Dollar crunched again
The U.S. dollar dropped to its lowest level since January, even as a prominent Federal Reserve official cast doubt on the assumption that the Fed will move toward another round of asset purchases at next month's regularly scheduled meeting.
    The U.S. currency fell to 81.8 yen, its lowest since April 1995, and was trading at $1.39 against the euro. The dollar index tumbled to 77.2, matching a low last seen in January.
    /The latest declines came after Friday's weak jobs report seemingly boosted the case for a return to so-called quantitative easing, in which the Fed buys Treasury bonds to push down interest rates. Private nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 last month, showing a tepid recovery continues but falling short of expected 75,000-job gain.
    The figures "are well clear of a 'double-dip' signal for the economy but they are consistent with continued disinflation which supports the case for an expansion of Fed QE at the November FOMC meeting," Tullett Prebon economist Lena Komileva wrote in a note to clients.
    But James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview on CNBC Friday that the push toward more easing isn't a "slam dunk" and stressed that members of the Federal Open Market Committee will decide only after reviewing more data on the economy.
    Bullard also noted the potential drawbacks to another round of QE, reflecting comments made in recent weeks by other regional Fed presidents.
    "This is unchartered waters... (inflation) may get away from us if we are not careful," Bullard said.
    Among t英语市场调研报告he chief risks of still looser Fed policy has become apparent in recent weeks with the outbreak of hostilities in currency markets. A weaker dollar pushes up the value of rival currencies, making it harder for growth-strapped countries to export their way out of their problems.
    The great fear should the Fed commit to another round of QE, Komileva said, is that it will end up "exporting deflation to the rest of the world through weak domestic demand and global currency majors' strength against the dollar."