财务报告与天气预报-Financial report and the weather

财务报告与天气预报Financial report and the weather

Profile: whether financial report or the weather forecast, it's going to have an important impact on our decisions.

Turn over the financial reports in the last two years and the academic journals, fair value has been a popular keywords, the international financial crisis is the fair value measurement this accounting problems into outlet wave. Until today, governments, academia, business on this problem of discussion continues, and the related articles have is books, here, this paper first put most of the time to put aside the theory term, let us change an Angle of view, from that everyone is familiar with the weather forecast is mentioned, will the weather forecast and financial reports analogy, maybe you can get some valuable inspiration.

The weather forecast and financial report, at first glance seem to be irrelevant two things, but a careful analysis up, in fact they are great similarities.

First, both are a kind of important information that we are all important reference for decision making. When the bank loans, shareholder investment review, often need to view the enterprise financial report for reference factors; When we travel to another city, need to see the weather forecast to travel and decided to carry articles, etc. Whether financial report or the weather forecast, it's going to have an important impact on our decisions.

Second, both are professional personnel to provide by. Of accounting personnel, it should pass system study and exam to obtain qualifications, have to be familiar with the enterprise accounting standards to the complicated business into a financial report of the data; For the weather forecaster, also should pass system from various can master study of meteorological data analyzed a weather forecast information technology. Whether financial report or the weather forecast, its formation and release process is a strict technical.

Third, the evaluation of the quality of both the standard is useful for decision making. Whether the weather forecast or financial report, since the decision important reference factors, and then measure the information quality of a standard is an important decision usefulness. For the weather forecast, it through the balloons, weather satellite, large computer and other equipment, design of complex operation model, the purpose is to ensure that the accurate forecast results; And for financial report for, through the accrual basis, double entry bookkeeping, account setting principle and method, the aim is to make the financial report will truly be able to reflect the current situation of the enterprises, and to provide more reliable basis for decision-making.

Since the weather forecast and financial reporting there are so many similarities, so will both for simulation of words, accounting used on the fair value measurement means what? Fair value as an asset value measurement method, with the current market value of the assets of the value of measurement standard, its purpose is to let the accounting information to reflect more timely asset value of the real condition of change, this is facing the past historical cost method can provide.

This is like the weather forecast as used in the thermometer, a thermometer in its essence is also a kind of measuring tools and measurement methods, and the temperature happen up and down, the thermometer can timely shows. Of course, we know that the subjectivity of financial report is more than that of the weather forecast, and relatively independent weather forecast is different, as their report their financial reports of the performance never avoid human manipulations to this problem. But, when we shall put down the controls did not talk about, and will be fair value measurement and the weather forecast of a thermometer analogy, or can get some enlightenment.

In the economic operation, from economic prosperity to economic depression, from the financial bubble to the financial crisis, if use the fair value measurement, asset values also would be like a roller coaster, like a peak experience from the bottom of the change, and all this, it is to use historical cost measurement can reflect. Fair value measurement reflects the formation and development of the financial crisis, to reflect the value of assets the sharp fluctuation, but whether so became an ally of the financial crisis and even the culprit? For the root of the financial crisis, to this day, everybody has a basic identity of views, and that is in the future too optimistic expectations, in this optimism, and on the basis of a series of financial innovation and financial derivatives overdraw the expected, but when the real economy can't support the expectations, the chain collapse, the financial crisis is followed. The U.S. credit crisis is not from a lot of bad assets being packaged listed? This actually in the final analysis, it is a kind of error of judgement, the wrong judgment more reflected the people to the economic cycle, of economic operation of the law cognition is very superficial.

If we still use the weather forecast to analogy of words, just as it is in the end of October part of a day, the emergence of a continuous high temperature, the temperature thermometer instructions as high as 30 degrees, so businesses make a judgment, the weather will continue to heat, then put serious money to hoard the summer goods. But in fact there won't be which the business will do that, because we of the weather operation law there is a basic understanding, the heat in the end of October is abnormal phenomenon, and the arrival of the cold is not independent of man's will as the shift.

But in the world economy, people know I'm afraid of is not so thoroughly, when the market optimistic sentiment, the fair value of the asset prices reflect, and a series of financing investment chain will start, but is likely to such enthusiasm is just a flash in the pan, after the bubble burst, leaving investors may be more is terrible loss.

In accounting measurement methods, the historical cost is cannot reflect the value of assets the real condition, also can't with the change of environment and to reflect the value of the assets in time to adjust, fair value in this respect a step, however, since people of economic activity and economic knowledge of law of superficial make this step Wallace were very difficult, but should not be so and will be blamed on the fair value, more important is the theoretical circle, I'm afraid to deepen economic law should be the understanding and research.

As it happens, el nino, abnormal weather, we are not to blame the thermometer, but we reflect on to the environment destruction, when we, in economic phenomenon, in fact not so it should be?

　　简介：无论是财务报告还是天气预报，都会对我们的决策产生重要影响。

　　翻开近两年的财经报道和学术期刊，公允价值一直是一个热门的关键词，此次国际金融危机更是把公允价值计量这一会计问题推上了风口浪尖。直至今日，各国政府、学术界、企业界等对这一问题的讨论仍在继续，相关的文章已是汗牛充栋，在这里，本文先把艰深的理论术语放在一边，让我们换一个视角，从大家都熟悉的天气预报谈起，将天气预报与财务报告进行类比，或许可以得到一些有价值的启发。

　　天气预报与财务报告，乍一看似乎是风马牛不相及的两个东西，但仔细分析起来，其实两者有很大的相似性。

　　第一，两者都是一种重要的信息，都是我们进行决策的重要参考。当银行审核贷款、股东进行投资时，往往需要查看企业财务报告以供参考因素；当我们出差到另一个城市时，需要看看天气预报以决定行程以及所携带的物品等。无论是财务报告还是天气预报，都会对我们的决策产生重要影响。

　　第二，两者都是由专业人员提供的。对会计人员来说，要经过系统学习和考试才能获得从业资格，需要熟悉会计准则才能将企业各项纷繁复杂的业务转变成财务报告中的数据；对于天气预报员来说，同样要经过系统学习才能掌握从各种气象数据中分析出天气预报信息的技术。无论是财务报告还是天气预报，其生成与发布过程都是有严格的技术要求的。

　　第三，两者质量的评价标准都对决策有用。无论是天气预报还是财务报告，既然都是决策的重要参考因素，那么衡量信息质量的一个重要标准就是决策有用性。对于天气预报来说，通过探测气球、气象卫星、大型计算机等设备，设计各种复杂的模型进行运算，目的是为了保证预报结果的准确；而对于财务报告来说，通过权责发生制、复式记账、账户设置等原则和方法，其目的正是为了让财务报告能真实全面地反映企业的现状，给决策提供更加可靠的依据。

　　既然天气预报与财务报告有这么多的相似之处，那么将两者进行类比的话，会计上采用公允价值计量意味着什么呢？公允价值作为一种资产价值的计量方法，用当前的市场价值作为资产价值的计量标准，其目的是为了让会计信息更及时地反映资产价值变动的真实状况，这是面向过去的历史成本法所无法提供的。

　　这就如同天气预报中使用的温度计一样，温度计究其本质也是一种测量工具和计量方式，气温发生升降，温度计都能够及时地反映出来。当然，我们知道财务报告的主观性要远远大于天气预报，与相对独立的天气预报不同，作为自己报告自己业绩的财务报告永远无法回避人为操纵这一问题。但是，当我们暂且放下操纵性不谈，将公允价值计量与天气预报中的温度计类比一下，还是可以得出一些有益的启示。

　　在经济运行中，从经济繁荣到经济萧条，从金融泡沫到金融危机，如果用公允价值计量，资产价值也就会如同过山车一样，经历一个从巅峰到谷底的巨变，而这一切，是用历史成本计量所无法体现的。公允价值计量反映了金融危机的形成发展，反映了资产价值的急剧涨落，但是否就因此就成了金融危机的帮凶甚至罪魁祸首呢？对于此次金融危机的根源，时至今日，大家已经有了一个基本一致的看法，那就是源于对未来过度乐观的预期，在此乐观情绪的基础上，一系列金融创新和金融衍生工具透支了这一预期，但当实体经济无法支撑这一预期时，链条崩溃，金融危机就随之而来了。美国的次贷危机不就是源于大量的不良资产被打包上市了吗？这其实归根结底是一种判断的错误，这种错误判断更多地反映了人们对经济周期、经济运行的规律认识得还很肤浅。

　　如果我们仍然用天气预报来类比的话，就好比在10月底的某一段日子，出现了连续的高温，温度计指示气温高达30度，于是商家做出判断，天气将持续炎热，于是投入重金囤积夏令商品。但是事实上不会有哪个商家会这样做，因为我们对天气的运行规律还是有个基本的认识的，10月底的炎热只是反常现象，而严寒的到来是不以人的意志为转移的。

　　但是在经济世界中，人们的认识恐怕就没有这么透彻了，当市场乐观情绪高涨时，公允价值反映的资产价格上涨，于是一系列的融资投资链条就会启动，但是很可能这样的热情高涨只是昙花一现，泡沫破灭后，留给投资者可能更多的是惨重的损失。

　　在会计计量方式上，历史成本是不能反映资产价值的真实状况的，也无法随着环境的变化而及时对资产价值的反映进行调整，公允价值在这方面迈出了一步，然而，由于人们对经济活动和经济规律认识的肤浅使得这一步迈得非常艰难，但是不应该因此而将出现的问题归咎于公允价值，理论界更重要的恐怕是应该加深对经济规律的认识和研究。

　　就像发生厄尔尼诺现象，气候反常后，我们不是去责怪温度计，而是反思我们对环境的破坏，当我们反观经济现象时，其实不也应该这样吗？